Back in January this year both myself, and Chris Mclellan made some predictions of what TMV believed would occur throughout 2011. This post examines what we got right and the predictions we got wrong. An interesting read folks, as we did manage to succeed in predicting three very large industry events, whilst also failing in our predictions related to some other juicy industry outcomes.
Our first prediction that ISPs will launch compelling music services was a rather large miss apart from Virgin Media teaming up with Spotify, and bundling it into their consumer offering. Which whilst yes this means an ISP finally has a compelling music service offering; the fact is Virgin Media did not develop it themselves. Score: 0/1
TMV’s first resounding successful prediction for this year was that Android would become the dominant Smartphone OS. And so this year we actually witnessed Android growing to a massive 38% global market share, whilst at the same time iPhone iOS dropped 1% to a 15.5% market share. Reinforcing the dominance of Android is the fact that in the second quarter of 2011 Android accounted for a whopping 46% of all app downloads, whilst iOS came in at 31%. Score: 1/2
Our third prediction was that music would become more, touchy-feely in respect of applications and touch screens. Being realistic we still do not think this has been one hundred percent realized, albeit 2011 has witnessed some awesome progress. Score: 1.5/3
The major label merger question of Warner Music purchasing EMI had been swirling around for numerous years despite numerous failed attempts. So, whilst EMI was sold to a major this year, it was not Warner Music. This led to Jnr Bronfman stepping down from his role at Warner music just last week as predicted by Wayne Rosso in his post titled “Au Revoir, Junior” on 15th November. Score: 1.5/4
We did successfully predict that Apple would launch its streaming music service. What we did not predict is that Amazon would hit the market first, closely followed by Google with Apple a distant third. The biggest surprise of all is that both Amazon and Google launched without music licenses. This saw severe usability drawbacks from a user experience standpoint. Luckily this prediction nudges our score upwards. Score:2.5/5
Perhaps TMV’s largest mistake was to predict that Spotify would never launch in the United States. And oh, how wrong we were. Since its US launch and tie up with Facebook – Spotify has kicked the gates of the United States market wide open. However, TMV did note in our 2011 predictions post, that we would love to be wrong. And happily, we were so very wrong. TMV are extremely happy to know this kicks our 2011 predictions score down. Score: 2.5/6…
Sadly, we were very wrong in reference to our prediction that Billboard would start integrating, tweets, like, shares and comments as fast as it can into its chart offering. Speculatively speaking, perhaps it was the fact it has changed owners and the stability of traditional publishers has been under threat. Subsequently maybe there quite simply was no budget to implement such a forward thinking programme. The knock on effect can only have been positive for new kid on the block Big Champagne (http://www.themusicvoid.com/2011/01/tmv-2011-predictions/) and its dynamic 21st century chart offering. So for this one, we have decided to award TMV half a point. Score: 3/7
Our eighth prediction that Jessie J would have Justin Bieber’s love child to fulfil the role on anti-Christ was a bit much wishful thinking for any god fearing folk. But hey you’ve got to have dreams; otherwise life and music would be pretty boring. We probably set ourselves up for a fall on this prediction, but well worth it regardless. Score: 3/8
Predicting a streaming a start-up will become profitable is not for the faint hearted, and that is exactly what TMV did in reference to UK based streaming service We7. Musically digging into company’s house filings actually showed a loss of $2.97 million was accrued. So TMV got this prediction very wrong, albeit business model changes implemented by the service will potentially see this outcome changed in 2012. Score: 3/9
The next big predictive win was that UMG would consolidate further and increase its market share. What we did not realise is that this would be achieved in great part via it’s acquisition of EMI Music’s recorded music division, at the expense of Warner Music. This was no doubt down to UMG’s new crowned global CEO Lucian Grainge’s superior modus operati in comparison to the proven lose making negotiator that is Edgar Bronfman Jnr. Score: 4/10
The final prediction was of a continual decline in live music concert ticket sales. We have only managed to source figures from the US market and in that respect our prediction was spot on. Lets hope this changes next year. However, if one were to examine the Australian market, international concert goers would be appalled to learn that Australian’s pay on average 2.5 times what punters in Europe and the US pay to see the same artist (i.e. $140 per ticket to see the Foo Fighters?). I can tell you now, that flight costs are an absolute red herring of an excuse. International booking agents that insist on ripping off Australian promoters can go F%$k themselves in TMV’s view! Score: 5/11
So, five out of eleven is pretty damn good in the predictions stakes if we may say so ourselves. Especially, considering we got a number of the larger predictions right! Keep an eye out for our 2012 industry predictions in January 2012…
Also feel free to drop us a line with any predictions you may have for 2012!
